Mail-In Voters: A New Force?

Today's New York Times picks up the story thread reported here last week: the significant impact that voting-by-mail could have on the results of Presidential primaries in a number of states, and especially in California on Super Tuesday, February 5. California election officials estimate half of the state's 15.5 million voters may vote by mail.

The early-voting dynamic of VBM has forced the Presidential candidates to adjust their campaign strategies, the Times notes, recognizing that many voters could be making their candidate selections over their kitchen tables now, not weeks from now in a voting booth. This has prompted the campaigns of the Presidential contenders to devote greater spending on phone banks, mailings and other tactics to specifically target these voters.

Voting by mail could shape the results in primary-significant states beyond California, including Florida and New Jersey.

The Times reports that "Officials in Florida, where the primary is January 29, report an increase in requests for absentee ballots, attributing it largely to the closeness of the races in both parties. About 42 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of Republicans in the state have requested absentee ballots."

Officials in New Jersey, which moved its primary to February 5 from March, also anticipate large numbers of mail-in voters, averting the potential of bad weather and capitalizing on the convenience of voting by mail.

Thirty-one states allow some form of voting-by-mail. Several states have changed their laws to "no excuse" voting, permitting allow voters to cast ballots by mail for any reason, as opposed to limiting it to sickness or absence from one's residence on Election Day.

The Times notes VBM's appeal, pointing to its convenience and alignment with on-the-go lifestyles of many Americans. But VBM is not without its critics, according to the paper, who claim that circumstances could change precipitously by the time of election day, pointing to the impact of Hillary's weepy moment two days before the New Hampshire primary.